Scenario Descriptions

2060 Scenario Descriptions

• Check out CCRPC’s Vision 2060 Scenario Planning Report & Survey Results (7 mB download).
  

Trend Scenario The land use trend depicts a development pattern and density likely to be seen on the Chittenden County landscape should the current trends of the past 30 years persist 50 years into the future. The pattern could be described as single family or low density housing/commercial uses on large lots. This trend consumes land at a high rate by spreading uses such as buildings, driveways and parking across large areas. The advantages of this type of development are solitude and elbow room for residents and workers in these areas. Disadvantages with this type of development pattern are that it often requires more spending on public services like roads, water, sewer, and emergency services which are more costly given the distances between houses/buildings as well as from town centers. Another disadvantage is the fragmentation of open land currently used for agriculture, forestry, and wildlife habitat.
Workshop Scenario Representative of the recommendations generated at the Fall 2008 CCMPO Scenario Planning workshops, the workshops were held around the county and resulted in 12 separate maps that, when closely examined, were variations on the same theme – a diffused centers pattern. Features include new clustered and higher density development assigned to areas adjacent to existing development; some additional build up of existing centers; and very limited development in rural areas. The differences between the 12 workshop maps varied only in where, and at what densities, the clusters were placed. The intensity and location of these centers impacts the provision of services to and within them. Advantages of this type of development include cost efficiencies on services like roads, water, sewer, and emergency services as well as the preservation of open space. This denser development and mixed use concentrated in smaller clusters may create a more urban atmosphere with less privacy and may be seen as a disadvantage by some. This type of development could require revisions to local zoning regulations in order to allow higher densities.
Core Scenario - takes a radical departure from recent trends and concentrates growth in fewer places. More specifically it would result in locating 45% of all new households over the next 50 years into Burlington and another 5% in Winooski. These cities have grown slowly over the last several decades making this scenario a dramatic reversal in historic trends. Such intensity of development in what have been slow growing places would require significant revisions of existing development regulations and public acceptance of high density zoning. This scenario will result in much denser neighborhoods in Burlington and Winooski which may change the character of those municipalities and give them a more urban feel The benefit of this type of development pattern would be significant cost savings in the provision of municipal services and contribute to more opportunities for taking buses or other public transportation and walking and bicycling. Areas outside the urban core would receive less growth and much of the rural areas would remain relatively open.